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THE RUNDOWN · COLUMN · OCT 5, 2024

Miami’s Real Opponent at Cal Isn’t the Bears: It’s a Thin Rotation and an Early Body Clock

Miami’s Real Opponent at Cal Isn’t the Bears: It’s a Thin Rotation and an Early Body Clock

Five games, five wins, and the most uncomfortable question in Coral Gables is about the defense. That’s where the 2024 season stands for the Miami Hurricanes as they fly across the country for a 10:30 a.m. kickoff at Cal. The record is perfect. The offense is putting up points at a historic pace. And the team still looks like it could trip on the next step if nobody fixes the leak.

So here’s my take, and I’m sticking to it: the Cal game won’t tell us whether Miami can score. We already know that. It’ll tell us whether this coaching staff will finally treat depth as a weapon instead of something to protect for later. If they don’t, the missed tackles we saw against Virginia Tech won’t be a fluke. They’ll be a trend.

The Offense Has Earned the Right to Be Boring

Let’s get the good news out of the way, because there’s a lot of it. Through five games, this Miami team has scored more points than the 2019 LSU national title team did at the same point. That LSU team is the modern measuring stick for offensive fireworks. Any time your name sits next to theirs in a sentence, you’re doing something right.

The ball is spread around, too. Xavier Restrepo leads the team with 25 catches for 422 yards. Jacolby Horton is right behind him with 22 grabs for 312 yards. That’s a real one-two punch, a veteran who wins with savvy and a second option who’s turned into a legit target. It also shows how this offense is built. Damien Martinez has just six catches for 79 yards, so the backfield isn’t where the passing game lives. The ball goes outside and over the middle to guys who’ve earned the quarterback’s trust.

When an offense is this productive this early, it should be the steady part of the team. Nobody should be losing sleep over whether Miami finds the end zone at Cal. The worry is on the other side of the ball.

Missed Tackles Are a Math Problem, Not Just a Technique Problem

The Virginia Tech game was closer than it should have been, and the tape doesn’t lie. Defenders got to the ball carrier and didn’t bring him down. The run defense stalled. A game Miami should’ve been controlling turned into one fans were sweating out.

The easy reaction is to blame the scheme or the coordinator and move on. I get it. That’s the fan reflex. But there’s a better explanation, and it should worry you more because it doesn’t go away with a new play call.

Start with practice. Modern college football puts tight limits on how much live, full-speed tackling teams can do during the week. That’s good for player safety, and nobody wants it back the old way. The tradeoff is real, though. Tackling is a timing-and-angles skill, and it gets sharper with reps. When the reps are limited in practice, game day is where a lot of the learning happens. That’s fine in a 35-point blowout. It’s dangerous in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Then add fatigue. A defense that leans too hard on the same bodies every snap starts losing the small battles late. The shoulder lands half a beat late. A defender takes a lazy angle. Someone reaches with one arm when he should’ve wrapped up. Those aren’t scheme mistakes, they’re tired-legs mistakes. If the rotation isn’t deep enough, the starters are playing tired by the second half no matter how well the plan is drawn up.

That’s the math. Fewer practice reps plus more snaps for the same players equals more missed tackles. You can’t install your way out of it. You fix it by putting more fresh bodies on the field.

Stop Saving Players for a Future That Isn’t Guaranteed

This is where the redshirt question comes in, and I want to be clear about where I stand. A redshirt is a long-term investment, and long-term thinking has its place. But Miami is 5-0 in the 2024 season with an offense on a historic pace. This isn’t a year to play the long game with healthy bodies who can help right now.

Look at Malik Bryant. He’s been chipping in at nickel, the spot where coverage and run support meet and where a missed tackle in space turns a short gain into a big one. When a player can take real snaps there, use him. Every snap he plays is a snap a starter doesn’t have to play on tired legs. That’s how you keep the tackling crisp in the fourth quarter.

The general rule is simple. If a guy is healthy and the coaches trust him enough to put him on the field in a meaningful role, his redshirt status shouldn’t be what’s holding him back. Rotations win in October and November. A defense with two real waves can stay aggressive all game. A defense with one wave hangs on and hopes.

Why Cal Is the Perfect Stress Test

Now put all of that on a cross-country flight. Miami heads west to play a 10:30 a.m. kickoff. For a team built on rhythm, an early start that far from home is a real test of whether the bodies are ready. Legs can feel heavy in the first quarter, and a thin rotation feels it twice as much by the fourth.

This is exactly the game that gets circled before the season as a trap: a road trip, an odd kickoff time, an undefeated team riding high after an escape. Trap games don’t usually hurt you because the opponent is better. They hurt you because the little things slip, and missed tackles are about as little-thing-turned-big-problem as football gets.

So I’ll be watching three things. First, the defensive snap counts. Are the backups playing real snaps in the first half, or only when the game is out of reach? Second, yards after contact. If Cal’s ball carriers keep falling forward, the Virginia Tech problem followed the team to California. Third, the second-half run defense. If Miami is still holding the line in the fourth quarter, the rotation is working. If it’s giving ground late, we know what’s going on.

Criticism Is What 5-0 Teams Get

One more thing, because some fans can’t stand anybody poking at an unbeaten team. Asking hard questions about a 5-0 squad isn’t negativity. It’s paying attention. The fans who notice the missed tackles in a win are the same ones who’ll be loudest when this defense figures it out. Expecting more from a team this talented is a compliment. Nobody breaks down the tackling of a team they’ve given up on.

For the record, not everyone is nervous. One longtime season-ticket holder who has been at every home game is calling it Miami 45, Cal 17. If the offense keeps doing its thing and the defense rotates the way it should, that’s not crazy at all. But that score only happens if the second wave of defenders gets real snaps. The first wave can’t carry the whole load.

Before we wrap, a quick note bigger than football. The U Talk family is keeping Coach Ky Hayes in their prayers as he deals with a health issue. Some things matter more than the scoreboard, and that’s one of them.

Miami doesn’t need to change who it is offensively. It needs to change who it trusts on defense. Play the depth, let the starters breathe, and the tackling will come back. Keep riding the same guys all game, and sooner or later a 5-0 start runs into a fourth quarter it can’t finish.

This take grew out of this week’s episode of U Talk Live, where the crew and callers went back and forth on the defense, the depth chart, and what this unbeaten run really means.

This take grew out of the October 5, 2024 episode — watch it here: Miami Hurricanes U TALK LIVE-230