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THE RUNDOWN · COLUMN · SEP 5, 2020

Miami’s Real Opener Test Isn’t UAB — It’s Whether This Team Can Hold a Lead for 60 Minutes

Five days. That's the number that's been sitting in the middle of Cane Nation's chest all week. Five days until D'Eriq King takes a snap in orange and green, five days until Rhett Lashlee's offense stops being a whiteboard and starts being a scoreboard, five days until we find out whether the last two Septembers were a fluke or a pattern.

And here's the thing nobody wants to say out loud while everybody's busy arguing about who the WR1 is: UAB is not the opponent Thursday night. Miami is the opponent Thursday night.

The Thing That Actually Broke Last Year

Go back and think about how last season ended. Not the box scores — the feeling. Flat. That's the word that keeps coming up any time you get two Canes fans in a room. Not outclassed, not undermanned. Flat. A team that looked like it stopped believing the second something went sideways.

That is a fixable problem, and it's also the single hardest problem in college football to fix, because you can't scheme belief. You can't install it in fall camp. You can only build it one drive at a time in a real stadium with a real clock running, and the only way to start building it is to go do it once in front of everybody.

Which is exactly why Thursday matters so much more than a season opener against a Conference USA team has any business mattering.

Why The Blazers Are The Wrong Team To Sleep On

Let's get this out of the way: UAB is not showing up to be a warm-up act. In their opener they put up 459 total yards. They held the football for more than 37 minutes. Read that again — 37 minutes. That's not a team that's going to punt three times and go home. That's a program that has figured out an identity: hold the rock, drain the clock, keep your defense on the sideline and the other team's offense in a folding chair.

If you're Miami, that is a genuinely annoying style to open against, because it robs you of possessions. You want a scrimmage-heavy, get-in-rhythm debut for a brand-new offense with a brand-new quarterback? UAB is going to give you the exact opposite. Every drive you get, you'd better cash it in, because there might only be nine of them.

They also allowed just two sacks in that game. That's an offensive line that knows what it's doing. So the Miami defensive front — the one Manny Diaz built and Blake Baker is now running day to day — is going to have to win with more than raw talent off the edge. It's going to have to win with discipline on early downs, because if UAB stays ahead of the sticks, they will keep that clock bleeding all night.

The Man-Coverage Invitation

Now the good news, and this is the part that should have every Cane fan sitting up straight: UAB plays a lot of man coverage.

A lot. Of man. Coverage.

Against this Miami roster. Against a speed group. Against a quarterback in D'Eriq King whose entire game is built on making a defense hold coverage two seconds longer than it wants to.

Man coverage against a scrambling quarterback is the closest thing football has to a cheat code, because every defensive back in man has his back turned to the football. King breaks contain, and suddenly you've got eleven guys running one direction and a quarterback running the other, and receivers who've been drilled all camp on scramble rules working back to open grass. That is not a wish. That is arithmetic.

So if you're looking for the tell Thursday night — the one snap that tells you whether this is real — it's not the first touchdown. It's the first busted play. It's the first time the pocket collapses and King has to go create something. Does this offense have answers when the design breaks? That's a Lashlee question and a King question at the same time, and you'll get the answer within a quarter.

The Trenches Are The Whole Ballgame

Everything above only matters if the offensive line holds. That's not a hot take, it's just the truth of what a run-first spread demands. This isn't an offense that survives on quick game and screens to hide a leaky front. It's an offense that wants to establish the run, make a safety cheat down, and then take the top off. The deep shot is the reward. The line work is the price.

That's where a guy like transfer lineman Jerry Williams becomes way more important than a casual fan realizes. Transfer linemen are the least glamorous roster additions in the sport and frequently the most decisive. Nobody buys a jersey. Everybody notices when the pocket holds.

And frankly, this is the correction Miami's been needing for years. This roster has been recruited on speed and asked to play a scheme built for a different kind of athlete. Round peg, square hole, over and over, while everybody wondered why the talent wasn't translating. The talent was always translating fine. The container was wrong.

Year Two Is The Honest Number

One more thing worth being precise about, because precision matters when you're setting expectations: this is Manny Diaz's second year. Not his third. That distinction changes the entire conversation about what a fair verdict looks like Thursday, and in November.

Year two is the year the staff's own recruits start playing, the year the scheme fit stops being theoretical, the year the coordinator hires get to run their own rooms. Baker fully running the defense Diaz designed is a year-two move, not a year-one move. It's the natural evolution of a head coach who built a defense and now has to be a head coach instead of a coordinator with a bigger office.

So no, one Thursday night doesn't render a verdict on Manny Diaz. But it absolutely renders a verdict on whether this team looks like it's playing with a clean slate or dragging last year's baggage onto the field with it.

What Winning Actually Looks Like

Forget the final score for a second. Here's the checklist that would make this a genuinely great night:

Score on the opening possession, because you don't get many drives against a clock-eating team and because nothing kills a rebuilt locker room's doubt faster than immediate proof. Win the sack column against a line that only gave up two. Take the ball away — more than once. And bring that chain out. Multiple times. There is no piece of jewelry in American sports that changes a stadium's temperature faster than the turnover chain, and a defense that's genuinely hunting takeaways is a defense that believes in itself.

Do those things and the receiver debate sorts itself out. Whether it's Mark Pope taking the top off with pure speed, D. Wiggins finally getting his year, or Mike Harley eating up the middle of the field out of the slot — that argument gets settled on grass, not on a podcast. Brevin Jordan is going to get his either way. Somebody just has to make the safety pick a side.

Five Days

Miami doesn't need a statement win Thursday. Miami needs a statement identity — the thing you can watch for sixty minutes and describe in one sentence afterward. For years the honest description was "talented and confused." If this team walks off that field and the honest description is "fast, physical, and mad about something," that's a season worth buying into, regardless of what the scoreboard says.

Punch somebody in the mouth. Then do it again on the next drive. That's the whole assignment.

This take grew out of this week's U Talk Live conversation, where Devin and Just Saying Sports host E-Gray broke down the UAB scouting report, Lashlee's new power-spread install, and the receiver room ahead of Thursday night — worth your time before kickoff.

This take grew out of the September 5, 2020 episode -- watch it here: Miami Hurricanes U TALK LIVE-43