The Rundown Take
Rivalry Week Math: U Talk Previews Miami-Florida State with the Worst Third-Down Offense in the Country
Days before the Miami-Florida State rivalry game, Devin returns for episode two of U Talk with a stat-heavy preview and a score prediction: Miami 21, Florida State 17. Behind the number is a hard truth — Miami owns the worst third-down conversion rate in the FBS.
Key Takeaways
- Devin predicts a 21-17 Miami win over Florida State and calls for more aggressive play-calling on both sides of the ball.
- Miami's third-down conversion rate sits at 23.26 percent, dead last in the FBS — down from 40.68 percent (54th nationally) in 2018.
- Miami ran for just 54 yards against Pitt the week before and lost the time-of-possession battle, 33:22 to 26:38.
- Devin wants quarterback Jarren Williams back after missing the Virginia Tech game, with the run game re-established behind DJ Davis.
- Defensive keys: contain Florida State running back Cam Akers, tackle in space, and avoid giving up chunk plays off misdirection.
The Third-Down Problem
Devin's preview keeps circling back to one number: 23.26 percent. With Miami unable to trust its kicking situation, he argues the offense has to finish drives with touchdowns instead of settling for field-goal tries in the red zone. His fix leans on fundamentals — establish the run early, protect Jarren Williams if the offensive line "decides to want to block," and stay disciplined on defense so Florida State's misdirection game doesn't turn into explosive plays.